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Nicholas Anastácio

@nenonicolosio.bsky.social
114 followers 77 following 33 posts

Hi! I’m the Senate campaign correspondent for National Journal’s Hotline. If you like to talk about elections, you’re in the right place Email at nanastacio@nationaljournal.com

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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 15/09/2026
Before a single vote was cast in the general election, two senators, 12 House members, and a governor lost reelection this year in one of the more tumultuous primary seasons in recent memory. @nenonicolosio.bsky.social reports (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732892/mea...
nationaljournal.com
Measuring the anti-incumbent wave
From the Capitol to the governor’s mansion, incumbents across the country have seen support from their respective parties' voters dwindle.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 31/08/2026
Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts is experiencing déjà vu in Tuesday’s primary. @nenonicolosio.bsky.social reports (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732756/mar...
nationaljournal.com
Markey seeks to avoid Moulton’s lava
The Massachusetts octogenarian is dipping back into his 2020 playbook.
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Nicholas Anastácio @nenonicolosio.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
I took on the (optional) task of calculating the full #MESEN delegate nominating meeting results by slate. Here's what I found: Troy Jackson's pledged delegates won 43.5% of votes. Nirav Shah's delegates got 20.4%, Shenna Bellows' bloc got 7.3% & Jordan Wood's bloc got 1.6%
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 23/07/2026
Independent Dan Osborn is poised to face GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska. His fellow independent candidates elsewhere haven’t been so lucky in clearing the field. @nenonicolosio.bsky.social and Sam Cormier report (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732485/spo...
nationaljournal.com
Spoiler alert: Democrats and independents clash in red-state Senate races
Three-way contests appear likely in Idaho, Montana, and South Dakota.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 07/07/2026
Oyster farmer Graham Platner’s scandal in Maine could doom any chance at the majority. In Michigan, the Democratic primary could shake up the Senate map further. @nenonicolosio.bsky.social and @kirk-bado.bsky.social with the Senate Power Rankings (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732298/iho...
nationaljournal.com
Hotline's Senate Power Rankings
Primary season shakes up the Senate map.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 02/07/2026
Over a year of economic strain on farmers is testing Republicans’ dominance in agricultural communities, particularly in rural states that could decide the balance of power in the Senate. @nenonicolosio.bsky.social and Sam Cormier report (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732256/in-...
nationaljournal.com
For Trump voters in farm country, economic uncertainty plants seeds of discontent
The Republican-friendly constituency weighs challenges under Trump’s second term in must-win Senate races.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 19/05/2026
Even amid Rep. Buddy Carter’s massive ad spends and Gov. Brian Kemp’s support for former Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, several polls show Rep. Mike Collins slightly ahead of his two opponents. By @nenonicolosio.bsky.social and Nancy Vu (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/731851/the...
nationaljournal.com
The Republican fight to stop Mike Collins
The Georgia congressman’s GOP opponents attempt to overtake him in the Senate primary.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 07/05/2026
Six years after leading the DSCC to four seat flips and a majority, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is urging her fellow party members to nominate moderate Democrats and avoid a Democratic tea party this November. @nenonicolosio.bsky.social reports (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/731738/is-...
nationaljournal.com
Is this the Democratic tea party?
Moderate Democrats warn that a progressive uprising could hijack the party’s chances of flipping the Senate.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 23/04/2026
For the third cycle in a row, Alabama Republicans are slated to choose a new senator—and President Trump’s pick isn’t guaranteed the seat. @nenonicolosio.bsky.social reports (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/731604/is-...
nationaljournal.com
Is Trump's endorsement enough in Alabama?
The Yellowhammer State’s Trump-loving Republicans try to balance MAGA principles with personal appeal.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 27/03/2026
National Journal analyzed four Texas counties that could determine the Senate GOP nominee and potentially forecast the November winner. Read the analysis from @nenonicolosio.bsky.social (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/731353/tex...
nationaljournal.com
These four counties are key to a Blue Texas
Democrats are encouraged by a turnout surge in the Senate primaries.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 10/03/2026
Senate Democrats need to flip at least four seats to win a majority this November. Read the Hotline Senate Power Rankings by @nenonicolosio.bsky.social and @kirk-bado.bsky.social (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/731187/iho...
nationaljournal.com
Hotline’s Senate Power Rankings
Democrats find their four-seat playbook.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 27/02/2026
Amid an abysmally high disapproval rating for Congress, two Democratic lieutenant governors are trying to bring an outside-the-Beltway perspective to the Senate. @nenonicolosio.bsky.social reports (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/731045/dem...
nationaljournal.com
Democratic seconds-in-command eye a Senate makeover
A pair of Midwestern lieutenant governors look to reshape the Democratic Party in D.C.
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Nicholas Anastácio @nenonicolosio.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Dem LGs are looking for a Senate makeover this cycle, defining themselves as progressive DC outsiders Lt. Govs. Juliana Stratton & Peggy Flanagan are aiming to actualize the DLGA’s bench into two open Dem seats in #ILSEN & #MNSEN Read more from me here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/731045/dem...
nationaljournal.com
Democratic seconds-in-command eye a Senate makeover
A pair of Midwestern lieutenant governors look to reshape the Democratic Party in D.C.
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Nicholas Anastácio @nenonicolosio.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
The 2026 Winter #Olympics are set to open soon, where 232 U.S. athletes will compete for the gold Yet Congress could remain Olympian-free next year, prolonging a 20-year Olympic drought From 1967 to 2007, at least one former Olympian served in each term www.nationaljournal.com/s/730901/cap...
nationaljournal.com
Capitol Hill’s Olympic Drought
Former Olympians have been shut out from Congress for nearly two decades.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 03/02/2026
Democratic Senate candidates finished 2025 off in dominant fundraising fashion, according to quarterly campaign finance reports filed on Saturday. @nenonicolosio.bsky.social reports (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/730837/iho...
nationaljournal.com
Hotline's Q4 Senate fundraising chart
Battleground Democrats dominate fundraising as GOP groups stockpile their cash.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 26/01/2026
On this episode, @kirk-bado.bsky.social @efilter.bsky.social @nenonicolosio.bsky.social @abby-turner.bsky.social and James A. Downs lay out predictions for another pivotal election year. Listen on Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/4Jg8...
open.spotify.com
National Journal Radio Bonus Episode: Bold 2026 Predictions
National Journal Radio · Episode
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Nicholas Anastácio @nenonicolosio.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
The first 2026 Dem primary is 3 weeks away in the #NJ11 special election & it could foreshadow Dem primaries to come From name ID challenges to establishment support to ideological fights, this race has it all + 11 Democrats More NJ dispatch from me: www.nationaljournal.com/s/730699/an-...
nationaljournal.com
'An embarrassment of riches': The first 2026 Dem primary previews a path out of the wilderness
Eleven Democrats vie to succeed New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill in Congress.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 16/01/2026
Three months after New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill’s victory, Democrats will likely get to choose her successor in the 11th Congressional District, in the party’s first primary of 2026. @nenonicolosio.bsky.social reports (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/730699/an-...
nationaljournal.com
'An embarrassment of riches': The first 2026 Dem primary previews a path out of the wilderness
Eleven Democrats vie to succeed New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill in Congress.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 05/11/2025
Is Iowa a field of dreams or nightmares? Democrats have an opportunity in two statewide races for the first time in decades, @NenoNicolosio.bsky.social and @abby-turner.bsky.social report. www.nationaljournal.com/s/730096/is-...
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 05/11/2025
The GOP won a four-seat gain in 2024. Democrats want theirs in 2026. @NenoNicolosio.bsky.social reports on Senate Democrats’ two-cycle math www.nationaljournal.com/s/730098/sen...
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 05/11/2025
Is Iowa a field of dreams or nightmares? Democrats have an opportunity in two statewide races for the first time in decades, @NenoNicolosio.bsky.social and @abby-turner.bsky.social report. www.nationaljournal.com/s/730096/is-...
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 05/11/2025
The GOP won a four-seat gain in 2024. Democrats want theirs in 2026. @NenoNicolosio.bsky.social reports on Senate Democrats’ two-cycle math www.nationaljournal.com/s/730098/sen...
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 05/11/2025
Is Iowa a field of dreams or nightmares? Democrats have an opportunity in two statewide races for the first time in decades, @NenoNicolosio.bsky.social and @abby-turner.bsky.social report. www.nationaljournal.com/s/730096/is-...
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 05/11/2025
The GOP won a four-seat gain in 2024. Democrats want theirs in 2026. @NenoNicolosio.bsky.social reports on Senate Democrats’ two-cycle math www.nationaljournal.com/s/730098/sen...
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 05/11/2025
Is Iowa a field of dreams or nightmares? Democrats have an opportunity in two statewide races for the first time in decades, @NenoNicolosio.bsky.social and @abby-turner.bsky.social report. www.nationaljournal.com/s/730096/is-...
nationaljournal.com
Is Iowa a field of dreams or nightmares for Dems?
Democrats have an opportunity in two statewide races for the first time in decades.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 05/11/2025
The GOP won a four-seat gain in 2024. Democrats want theirs in 2026. @NenoNicolosio.bsky.social reports on Senate Democrats’ two-cycle math www.nationaljournal.com/s/730098/sen...
nationaljournal.com
Senate Democrats’ two-cycle math
The GOP won a four-seat gain in 2024. Democrats want theirs in 2026.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 05/11/2025
Senate Democrats have a clearer path to regain the majority in 2026, but acknowledge it’s a difficult lift to gain four seats, @NenoNicolosio.bsky.social and @kirk-bado.bsky.social report. www.nationaljournal.com/s/730100/iho...
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 12/11/2025
Rep. Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ 07) has made history as the first Latina member of Congress from Arizona. Latina candidates talk to @nenonicolosio.bsky.social about increasing their margins in the midterms. Read for free here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/729825/la-...
nationaljournal.com
La Congresista Latina
Latinas in Congress look to increase representation in midterms
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 13/11/2025
In this episode @kirk-bado.bsky.social James Downs @efilter.bsky.social @nenonicolosio.bsky.social and @abby-turner.bsky.social discuss the road to the midterms a year out. Listen on Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/2xdk...
open.spotify.com
National Journal Radio Bonus Episode: The 2026 Midterm Preview
National Journal Radio · Episode
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 14/11/2025
With open races for governor and Senate in Iowa for the first time in nearly 60 years, Democrats see a rare opening in a state that has been steadily trending red. @abby-turner.bsky.social and @nenonicolosio.bsky.social (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/730096/is-...
nationaljournal.com
Is Iowa a field of dreams or nightmares for Dems?
Democrats have an opportunity in two statewide races for the first time in decades.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 17/10/2025
Democrats face an uphill climb to win back the Senate but they got some good news: Q3 reports (July 1-Sept. 30) show they dominated fundraising in six of Hotline’s 10 Senate seats most likely to flip. Read @nenonicolosio.bsky.social's free piece to learn more: www.nationaljournal.com/s/729897/iho...
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Hotline Q3 Senate fundraising chart
Democrats among top fundraisers in majority of Senate battlegrounds.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 09/09/2025
Sen. Dick Durbin's retirement has set off a scramble among Democrats to represent the Land of Lincoln. Read this free story from @savbehrmanndc.bsky.social and @nenonicolosio.bsky.social to find out whos got the edge right now and why geography matters: njour.nl/s/729522?unl...
buff.ly
Playing in Peoria: Illinois Dems running to replace Durbin hit the stump outside Chicagoland
Courting rural voters, a strategy heralded by retiring Sen. Durbin, has become a pillar of Democratic campaigns ahead of March’s primary.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 03/07/2025
In this free Q&A, @nenonicolosio.bsky.social talks to Maine's Democratic House speaker on the Big Beautiful Bill's impact on his home state, and a potential challenge to Sen. Susan Collins. Read here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/728941/qa-...
nationaljournal.com
Q+A with Ryan Fecteau
Maine's Democratic House speaker discusses the Big Beautiful Bill's impact on his home state, and a potential challenge to Sen. Susan Collins.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 30/06/2025
On this episode @kirk-bado.bsky.social talks to @nenonicolosio.bsky.social about his forecast of the Senate battlefield. Listen on Spotify here: open.spotify.com/episode/5G3r...
open.spotify.com
National Journal Radio Episode 82: Emerging Senate Battlefields
National Journal Radio · Episode
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Nicholas Anastácio @nenonicolosio.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
New Jersey and Virginia's GOV races are set! On Dem side: 2018 blue-wave House Dem roommates with natsec backgrounds On GOP side: State-level Reps w/ statewide electoral experience, balancing their histories with Trump From @abby-turner.bsky.social and me: www.nationaljournal.com/s/728750/wha...
nationaljournal.com
What’s Shaping 2025’s GOV Races
New Jersey and Virginia locked in their nominees—but the candidates aren’t the only forces impacting the races.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 28/05/2025
Despite losing the Garden State three times, President Trump is an omnipresent feature of New Jersey’s open governor’s race. @nenonicolosio.bsky.social reports (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/728586/tru...
nationaljournal.com
Trump looms over New Jersey governor’s race
Candidates from both parties handle the Trump factor in their runs.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 07/05/2025
What are the states where Latino voters could make a difference in the 2026 Senate races? @nenonicolosio.bsky.social explains where in this free article:
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Where Latino voters can swing the Senate
The swing constituency is a focus for both parties across the Senate battlegrounds.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 29/04/2025
What's it like to be a freshman in Congress during Trump's second term? National Journal's James A. Downs and @nenonicolosio.bsky.social asked a number of them. Read this free story to see how they responded: www.nationaljournal.com/s/728345/100...
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100 days of Congress, in members' own words
Freshman members reflect on the first days of Trump, legislating, and roaming around Capitol Hill.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 24/04/2025
Last year, Republican campaigners pivoted to the evolving media universe with more agility than their Democrat counterparts. Can Dems figure out this space in time for the midterms? @nenonicolosio.bsky.social and @savberhmanndc.bsky.social report (unlocked)
nationaljournal.com
After GOP dominance in 2024, Democrats aim to carve out space in new-media world
'What Republicans did so well is that they politically coded culture instead of trying to culturally code politics.'
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 16/04/2025
Vulnerable Senate Democrats dominated fundraising in the first three months of the off year, according to campaign finance reports filed Tuesday, writes @NenoNicolosio.bsky.social (unlocked) www.nationaljournal.com/s/728236/iho...
nationaljournal.com
Hotline's Q1 Senate fundraising chart
Incumbents reinforce their campaigns as the parties look to expand the map.
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Nicholas Anastácio @nenonicolosio.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
NEW #NCSEN: A Bohr Strategies poll conducted for embattled financier Timothy Ratliff (R) shows him trailing Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in a hypothetical GOP primary matchup 🔴Tillis 47% 🔴Ratliff 45% ❓Undec 8% April 1; 800 LVs; +/-3.6%
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 25/03/2025
On this episode, @kirk-bado.bsky.social talks to @nenonicolosio.bsky.social about to see where the Senate battlefield forms with open primaries, retirement announcements, and how the midterms could impact Republican female senators. Listen on Spotify:
open.spotify.com
National Journal Radio Episode 75: The Senate Battlefield Forms
National Journal Radio · Episode
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 21/03/2025
A record 10 GOP women are serving in the Senate this term. Six are up for reelection in 2026. @nenonicolosio.bsky.social reports (unlocked):
nationaljournal.com
Republican women want to keep their double-digits in the Senate
A record 10 GOP women are serving in the Senate this term. Six are up for reelection in 2026.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 10/03/2025
Red-state Democrats are an increasingly endangered species. @nenonicolosio.bsky.social talks to former Dem senators on their thoughts on how the party can compete in red states like theirs. Read for free:
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Red-state blues: Senate Democrats' path back to power runs through unfriendly territory
Former Democratic senators shared their thoughts on how the party can compete in red states like theirs.
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Nicholas Anastácio @nenonicolosio.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Dems can crack through the GOP's Senate majority in 2026, but they'll have to play in unfriendly territory if they want to win back control I spoke with @dougjones.bsky.social and former Sens. Tom Daschle and Max Baucus about where Dems can go from here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/727783/red...
nationaljournal.com
Red state blues: Senate Democrats' path back to power runs through unfriendly territory
Former Democratic senators shared their thoughts on how the party can compete in red states like theirs.
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 05/02/2025
With 2024 in the rearview mirror, the money race is already underway for next year’s Senate midterms. @nenonicolosio.bsky.social reports (unlocked):
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What the Senate money means for 2026
The starting money gun for the midterms has fired.
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Nicholas Anastácio @nenonicolosio.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
NEW #GASEN: A WPAi Intelligence poll conducted by the Club for Growth in Georgia found Gov. Brian Kemp (R) ahead of Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) in a hypothetical matchup: 🔴 Kemp 46% 🔵 Ossoff 40% ❓ Undecided 14% Jan. 14-15; 500 LVs; +/-4.4% (1/?)
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Nicholas Anastácio @nenonicolosio.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
A Victory Insights poll in Texas (Jan. 4-6; 450 LVs; +/-4.9%) found state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) ahead of Sen. John Cornyn in a GOP primary #TXSEN Paxton 42% Cornyn 34% Undecided 25% W/O PAXTON Someone else 40% Cornyn 35% Undecided 25% t.co/pxZNeIHKp6
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https://irp.cdn-website.com/07e08705/files/uploaded/PollReport_TX-2026_1-8-25.pdf
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Nicholas Anastácio @nenonicolosio.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
#OHSen: VP-elect J.D. Vance hasn’t said when he’ll resign from the Senate, but it’s not out of the ordinary for VPs Kamala Harris resigned on Jan. 18, 2021 Joe Biden resigned on Jan. 15, 2009 Read about it in today’s Senate campaign news for @njhotline: www.nationaljournal.com/s/727193/van...
nationaljournal.com
Vance quiet on Senate resignation timeline
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Reposted by Nicholas Anastácio
National Journal @nationaljournal.com · 21/12/2024
The House passed the CR to keep the govt open but the back-and-forth over the measure exposed fault lines in the GOP conference and the limits of Trump's influence. The story from @caseywooten.bsky.social & @savbehrmanndc.bsky.social
njour.nl
A CR-istmas miracle: Senate to vote on stopgap funding bill after House passage following days of delay
The back-and-forth over the measure exposes fault lines in the GOP conference and the limits of Trump's influence.
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