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The Rugby League Eye Test

@leagueeyetest.bsky.social
1.2K followers 275 following 1.1K posts

Artisan & small batch rugby league stats & analysis by @carlosthedwarf.bsky.social | X/IG/Threads: @leagueeyetest | LeagueEyeTest@gmail.com | Attribution apparently optional | Curating NRL/Rugby League Starter Pack - go.bsky.app/LWeWfYR

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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The 31.12 allowed by the Knights was the second most expected points (ETxP) conceded this season. Highest was by the Titans who allowed 35.58 in their Round 16 win over Penrith - which was also a 19-18 victory 🤔
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
They also allowed huge numbers against Panthers (27.9), Warriors (20.4) & Souths (20.1). It's not a sustainable way to play but they almost made it work
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Newcastle gave the Roosters 31.12 points of field position (expected points/ETXP) last night. They were last in the NRL during the regular season for ETxP conceded (18.8), so not unexpected
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
While waiting for PVL to mispronounce someone's name tonight, you can catch up on the Maroon Observer x Eye Test MOET Player of the Year voting to see which players fared the best under a Dally M style voting system based on stats. Links following 🔗
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The Eye Test's NRL & NRLW teams of the 2026 season by my Eye Test Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR) metric **NOTE** these are not the players I would pick in my teams of the year, but the players who performed best by this measure
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Just realised I used the wrong chart (penalties instead of set restarts) but the point still stands
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This Knights/Panthers expected point (ETxP) chart is in the link above, but here's the Roosters/Dolphins one as well
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Why not prepare for two exciting NRL prelim finals by checking Eye Test analysis of the 4 teams playing from earlier this season? Panthers (March) Knights (May) Roosters (July) Phins (August) + Aug 2025 post on how important Sam Walker is to the Roosters (links following)
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The surprise is more set restarts
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Last weeks games as well for completeness
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Expected point charts for both NRL games from Finals Week 2. Cronulla couldn't contain the Roosters from anywhere. The Warriors had more than enough high value field position to put away the Knights. Second week in a row that has been an issue for Webster
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
🤔
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
re: this
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
"You don't have to water the footballs" Technically not true
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Last week we had the Finals teams advanced stats cheat sheet. This week it's advanced stats for the Shame List, the bottom 9 who missed the Finals. Where does each team need to improve for 2027?
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Top/Bottom 20 players from NRLW Round 11 by the Eye Test's Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR)
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
The Eye Test's NRL Finals advanced stats cheat sheet. How every team ranks by my advanced metrics
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Top/Bottom 20 players for NRL Round 27 by the Eye Test's Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR) Xavier Savage's +10.476 is the second highest individual game this year behind Sam Walker's +10.865 in Round 22. Coby Black's +9.769 is the 5th highest of the season
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Top/Bottom 20 players for NRLW Round 10 by the Eye Test's Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR)
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Just in time for the finals... Avg set restarts per game by rounds: Rounds 1-13 - 8.9 Rounds 14-23 - 6.5 Rounds 24-27 - 8.4
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
And here's 30m out to the line for 2025 as a reference
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
For this chart I only looked passes not from dummy half (since hookers would dominate) and passes not to another spine player because the top 50 or so is mostly half to half or half to fullback. Here's the inside 20m chart for 2026 including fullbacks as a guide
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
I wanted to check how much of a meme "Galvin to Preston" was, so I looked at non spine pass combinations this season from 30m/20m from the try line Kodi ➡️ Herbie was #1 from 30m out Galvin ➡️ Preston was #2 from 30m out & #1 from 20m out. 2x more than all but 13 combos
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Top/Bottom 20 players for NRL Round 26 by the Eye Test's Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR)
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Top/Bottom 20 players for NRLW Round 9 by the Eye Test's Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR).
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
IYKYK
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Stefano Utoikamanu with a calf compression sleeve crime?? 🤔🤔 Might need a new grade for this
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Mainly thought of it because of this. Agreed it probably evens out but id like to adjust them somehow
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Top/Bottom 20 players for NRL Round 20 by the Eye Test's Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR)
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Top/Bottom 20 players for NRLW Round 8 by the Eye Tests Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR) Krystal Blackwell's +8.026 is the 4th highest individual game this season
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Late addition - Apa Twidle Grade 2 Some nice Mizuno boots too
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Tonight is the Sock Crime bowl, with 2026's two biggest Sock Criminals - Tallyn Da Silva & Kodi Nikorima facing off among others Jack Bostock is trying to hide a Sock Crime by wearing red socks underneath. Gotta wake up pretty early in the morning to get one past me
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
My favourite part of this week's post is this chart, mostly because the Broncos & Titans have nearly identical profiles for defending attacking kicks They shall be named the Titancos
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Top/Bottom 20 players for NRLW Round 7 by the Eye Test's Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR). Fix up the bottom 20 chart this time, had shown Round 4 before not Round 7, my apologies
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Top/Bottom 20 players for NRL Round 24 by the Eye Test's Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR)
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Top/Bottom 20 players for NRL Round 23 by the Eye Test's Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR)
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Top/Bottom 20 players for NRLW Round 6 by the Eye Test's Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR)
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
oh no
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Same charts for the least number of players used - Penrith (25), Cronulla (25) and Canberra (26)
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Some team stability chart updates after Round 22. Melbourne, Brisbane & Wests Tigers have used 33 players, the most in the NRL, with Souths at 31
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Top/bottom 20 players from NRLW Round 5 by the Eye Test's Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR). Raecene McGregor's +7.104 is the fourth highest individual game score of the season. One of the best games I've seen a player have this year
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Top/Bottom 20 players for NRL Round 22 by the Eye Test's Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR). As I revealed on SEN this morning, Sam Walker was #1 this week at +10.865, the highest single game score this season, ahead of James Tedesco's +10.307 from Round 8
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
Remembering NRL officials telling the SMH that the reason for lower six again counts was because Penrith, Melbourne and Brisbane had byes during the Origin period. Unless I'm wrong (known to happen) I'm pretty sure they've all played over the past three weeks
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
Almost like the competition has been played under two different rule sets...
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Yikes
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Who could have seen this coming....
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Top/Bottom 20 players for NRLW Round 4 by the Eye Test's Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR). Jocelyn Kelleher's +8.039 is the third highest individual game of the season, behind Lavinia Tauhalaliku in Round 3 (+8.382) & Jamie Chapman in Round 2 (+8.170)
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Top/Bottom 20 players for NRL Round 21 by the Eye Test's Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR) Second week in a row at #1 for Ethan Sanders. His +9.695 is the third highest individual game this season behind James Tedesco in Round 8 (+10.307) and Nicho Hynes in Round 19 (+9.786)
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The Rugby League Eye Test @leagueeyetest.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
A lot can change in 12 months After Round 20, 2025 Cronulla were +21 in cumulative net penalties (awarded-conceded), 1st in the NRL After Round 20, 2026 Cronulla are -34 for net penalties, last in the NRL A swing of 55 more penalties conceded than awarded in a year...
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