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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

And thank you for highlighting my article on DKos. I appreciate the support.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Project Owl has Stepnohirsk in Ukrainian hands, but BARELY since they have the line running right next to the town.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Project Owl often shows recent areas of movement for Russia and Ukraine in a different color. I have simply shown them as the same color as other Ukrainian advances because the maps are mighty confusing already.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Note to CharlesII on DKos: Project Owl shows Stepnohirsk as a Ukrainian advance. The map I show is directly downloaded from their website. They have that small block listed as "Ukrainian W Zaporizhia Counterattacks 2026. Counterattacks clearing territory in West Zaporizhia since Jan 1st 2026."

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Ukraine: End of Quarter Ground War Review (3rd Qtr 2026) 22trucks.substack.com/p/ukraine-en...

22trucks.substack.com

Ukraine: End of Quarter Ground War Review (3rd Qtr 2026)

Introduction:

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Note to 1BQ on DKos RSBU: It is evident you know absolutely nothing about US military academies and little about its military leaders.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

the Dragonfire will have a special flywheel energy device (concept developed in Formula 1 racing) to help supply the BIG juice for short bursts. That means this thing will be BIG and stationary, which means it will be easy to fly around and avoid. Or easy to target.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Also, one of the main problems with lasers on the battlefield has always been power supply with HIGH peak demand for very short periods. The Dragonfire is intended for ship mounting, which is fine since a ship has large power capabilities. However, even with with the power supply of a whole ship,

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

I'm pretty sure there are no Dragonfire lasers in Ukraine. It has been discussed, but I do not think it has happened.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Also note that this whole thing will likely fail since Ukraine seems to have counterattacked and stuffed the whole plan where the sun don’t shine. I hope to see some independent, solid confirmation that this is so in the next couple of days.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Drukhivka and Kramatorsk, so the intent it to pinch the road from both sides and isolate the town. I’ll do a map of this when I do the quarterly update in a couple of days (intend to publish Monday or Tuesday).

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Well, the correct answer is now known: it is Scenario 1. It is likely aimed just north of town to cut it off from support from Kramatorsk. We know this because Russian forces have, in recent days, attacked from the east of town aimed at that same northern support road between

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

RE: The two scenarios presented in the July/August Update a couple of weeks ago (22trucks.substack.com/p/update-ukr...). Briefly, those scenarios were a) attack Druzhivka from the west and (more likely) 2) attack Kramatorsk from the west (less likely).

22trucks.substack.com

Update: Ukraine Ground War in July & August

I did short updates last quarter for each of the months of April and May and figured I’d probably do the same for individual months this quarter, but July was just so … nuthin’.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Think 30 cal, probably. There are other problems with his concept. Maybe I’ll write an article, except I sorta spoiled the lede here.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

requiring development, testing, manufacture in volume, and fielding which includes training and vehicle alteration. Also, … um … trees. Buildings. Hills. Smoke. Darkness. Finally, a 50 cal is probably not the right weapon to use as it is slow and heavy and requires lots o’ big bullets.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

with drones. You actually have to HIT thee drone, not scare it into inaction. If he’s talking about soldiers aiming the .50 cal, you ain’t gonna hit a drone at 1,000 meter except out of pure dumb luck. If you’re planning on some “optically guided” automated system, that is a way in the future

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

target. 1,000 meters is for shooting at troops. FPV drones are, in general pretty dang small and fast, so the range of the .50 will be greatly reduced. Also, the main purpose of a bullet on the battlefield is to keep the other guy from moving or shooting at you (suppression). That don’t work

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

protects a radius of about two thousand meters around itself.” >end quote< Well, first of all, there’s a problem with radius versus diameter, but that's minor. However, a .50 caliber MG has an effective range of whatever the aiming apparatus is and is effected by the size and velocity of the

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

still a very useful tool to add to the combat mix, but this won’t be happening in the next few months. Maybe half a decade or so (that’s a guess). As an example of an error: <quote>”A .50 caliber machine gun has an effective range of roughly a thousand meters, which means each air defense gun

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

RE: DKos RSBU and the “The drones’ days are numbered” article. He is correct that their influence in the battlefield will be reduced by countermeasures, but there are several errors in his article. I have been saying that countermeasures will force drones back into a balance where drones are

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

RE DKos RSBU "Russia is attempting to create a breakthrough in Ukrainian lines in a weak spot in the fortress belt." For those who want maps and to understand what Russia is trying to do, here is a description of what is developing from my update about July and August from about 3 weeks

22trucks.substack.com

Update: Ukraine Ground War in July & August

I did short updates last quarter for each of the months of April and May and figured I’d probably do the same for individual months this quarter, but July was just so … nuthin’.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Think it through. Talkin' about the comments on DKos that started all of this.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

All you have to do is admit that you didn't read the comments.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

That's why defining "win" is an important step. If "win" means help Ukraine, air will do that. If "win" means removing Russia as a threat, air alone likely will not accomplish that. I believe people were mostly talking about the long term future of Russia. Or, preferably, its lack of future.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Whatever it is, they won't get it done with a few bombs and missiles. The point is, equating air superiority with victory is stupid. Subtle is my stock in trade. You must have heard the joke about the horse trainer.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

In the case of Iran, you are correct. You have to know what you are trying to accomplish before you can figure out how to accomplish it. Beyond "Kill leader, government falls," they had no plan. With these folks talking about Russia, they too have not defined what they are trying to accomplish.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

I am not the one missing the point. The question is "How do you define "WIN!" If the definition of "winning" is Russia is no longer a threat to western Europe,... ... see Iran. Bunch o' bombs didn't do it. If you are unprepared to put soldiers in harm's way, you aren't ready to win.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Good grief. And the people on DKos wanna call the general stupid for doing the same thing.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

sooner, if it unleashes everything at once” … WHEN WILL PEOPLE LEARN??? Airpower along has NEVER won a war. Period. How do you think Trump and Hegseth FUCKED UP IN IRAN SO BAD? Never, ever, ever, EVER assume the enemy will fold like a cheap tent after a coupla bombs land.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

To all the folks on DKos RSBU talking about NATO quickly defeating Russia and “if some NATO countries join Ukraine in taking out Russian infrastructure, how long will it be before Russia is totally helpless?” and “I think NATO can bring Putin's aggression to a grinding halt within days, if not

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Note to CharlesII on DKos RE: Freed encircled troops: I think it could be up on the Russian border in the E-W section east of Vovchansk. That is the most current estimated location of the 159th and is a section where units from both countries are intermingled with little actual movement for

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

I also trust in Ukraine, but recognize that they have a very difficult row to hoe and ignoring that fact is just f’ing stupid.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

As for supposedly not giving Lyman 2 minutes, he must not be talking about me because I talked about the Lyman attack BEFORE IT HAPPENED. Perhaps he missed that as well. Based on his past history, this is not surprising since he seems to miss a lot.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

it appears that wiganboy missed the entire period from October 2024 through most of 2025 and also Russia’s approach to and capture of Hulyaipole. Overall, both were not too shabby. To assume one’s enemy is totally incompetent in all things at all times is dangerous beyond belief.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

give Lyman 2 minutes of their time going all in on Orikhiv. In Ukraine we trust. >unquote< ————— I too believe Ukraine knows what it is doing, but sometimes an attacker has an advantage, which is all my article points out. As for when the Russians “learn(ed) to attack effectively,”

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

In reply to wiganboy on DKos (RSBU) in his reply to CharlesII in the following comment: <quote> My money is on Ukraine knowing what they are doing, and reacting accordingly. When have they ever let us down and when did the Russians learn to attack effectively? Interesting to see commentators who

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

You saw it here first, folks: Someone on the internet admitting they could be wrong!

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Friend Quaoar sites reports that the situation for Russia in that area is worse than what I have stated here, so I could be wrong about this. There are many conflicting reports. I don't know if the Russian bloggers are correct or just paniccing as they have a few times in the past.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

I don't see much more than a Brigade of Ukrainians moving south. As the attacker, Russia has the tactical advantage here.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Well, since Russia has more troops in that area than Ukraine and they apparently pulled off the extremely difficult maneuver of withdrawing in good order and they fell back to very defendable position (nice terrain), it frees up Russian units to move south to, oh, let's see... Sloviansk/Kramatorsk.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Don't let the cheerleading on DKos fool you. Russia has a plan and is following it in its slow, grinding, inhumane , expensive way. This is far from done. Putin is prepared keep this going as long as it takes. And Europe/EU/NATO(-) may not be. Don't judge success based on Western standards.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Going after Orikhiv is simply the next step west after Hulyaipole. It's been the plan for many months, because that's the next step in approaching the city of Zaporizhzhia. The relatively rapid push west almost a year ago to take Hulyaipole was about Orikhiv and, ultimately, Zaporizhzhia.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Learn the name of this one, also. Russia attacked from the SE and approached town, though they fail to control the ground they covered. However, now, Ukraine doesn’t control it either. There are further threats from the NE as well. Keep an eye on this one.” <end quote>

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

it appears Russia is starting finally to get serious about this town that has stood near the front lines for years. It acted as the base for the 2023 offensive attacks toward Robotyne and has stood long before that, all the way back to the start of the full invasion.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

RE: DKos RSBU - Assault on Orikhiv - It has been underway for weeks and was forecast a few months before that, so this should come as no surprise. From 22trucks.substack.com/p/update-ukr... <quote> Orikhiv: I bring this one up not because there was lots of movement but because

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

The ARNG is not involved because the regular Army does not have the filled boots to handle things anymore. It’s involved because it's planned that way. And if they are ever needed, the ARNG troops are better prepared for it because it was planned that way.

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22 Trucks @22trucks.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

6th ID oversaw 205th’s two week annual training, flying about 200 officers and NCOs to MN for over two weeks. In war, ARNG units regularly deployed to the warzones in Iraq and Afghanistan. Brave ARNG soldiers died during those deployments.

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