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Rich Frank @richwfrank.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

What does predict violence are election-specific factors. Specifically, fraud, competitiveness, an executive contest on the ballot, and the election month. These are shorter-term and strategic factors. Unlike GDP or ethnic geography, they are things you could in principle intervene on. 8/n

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Rich Frank @richwfrank.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Finding #3. Level of analysis matters more than we usually admit. Of the 13 robust predictors, only two (population size and domestic conflict) work at both levels. A competitive election predicts violence nationally but not sub-nationally. 9/n

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Rich Frank @richwfrank.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Sub-nationally the question shifts from where to whom. Specifically, younger citizens and female candidates face higher risk. But most studies do not test the whom. 81% of subnational models never say who the perpetrator was, and 97% of national models never say who the victim was. 10/n

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