Matt Lanza @mattlanza.bsky.social · 29/09/2026There’s a lot to unpack here, not the least of which is that the benchmarks being measured against here aren’t that important? Oh good, “the market” beats the NBM on a high temperature forecast at day ahead, evening before, and morning of. Like…? 6206 20
Clark Evans @clarkevanswx.github.io · 29/09/2026I think what they’re getting at is that weather-sensitive stakeholders should consider using Kalshi predictions to power their decisions since they’re more accurate than any single public-facing product. There is more to it than accuracy, though, for those decision makers (more on this at the end). 120 2
Clark Evans @clarkevanswx.github.io · 29/09/2026Speculating for a moment, my guess is that Kalshi weather traders are predominantly experts (possibly including some who do that work for a private company!) who have developed their own predictive models blending many sources of information and seek to cash in on their performance. 120 2
