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Dan Visioni @danvisioni.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

… specific tools (IAMs) were used to create those scenarios to be climate-model ready (that’s a lot of work, generating sensible emissions/land use changes etc). Different needs & different tools could have generated different scenarios. Plausibility can be assessed a posteriori.

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Dan Visioni @danvisioni.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

This will be made more complicated this time around by the fact scenarios have names that imply normative judgment. “High” is just “higher than Medium”, not “as high as it can go” - and what if for some parts of the assessment we need to use CMIP6 scenarios, where the high ones were much higher?

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Dan Visioni @danvisioni.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

And to me this applies, again, more to the low end of the spectrum than to the high one. Ppl will read “very low” scenarios with lots of CDR as implications of need for it directly and plausibility of those scales (“the IPCC says we need this much CDR”) rather than as “we wanted such a scenario”…

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