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Seed Oil Drinkers Against Trump @superkatzbro.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I was thinking about this and here's the insight. If you take polls seriously, Democrats are poll above generic ballot baseline in Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, and Texas, and below in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont. Median age ME: 44.8 NH: 43.3 VT: 43.1 KS: 37.4 ID: 37.3 AK: 35.8 TX: 35.6

Daniel Drezner@dandrezner.bsky.social

So… those NYT/Siena polling numbers for Alaska are nuts, right?

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Seed Oil Drinkers Against Trump @superkatzbro.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

And I think the bearish hypothesis for Democrats is that there's a massive polling error specifically among younger voters that's propping them up. And, the more bullish hypothesis is that young people are more impacted by inflation and that's persuading people/impacting turnout differentials.

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