Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 05/10/2026Diesel is particularly exposed. Britain and Europe need it for freight, farming, construction, heating oil blending and industry. It is a refined-product market already under pressure, not simply “oil in a ship somewhere.” 160
Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 05/10/2026Emergency reserves are useful. They buy time, calm panic and soften the immediate shortage. But they are a bridge, not new production, not refining capacity, not safe navigation and not a replacement for commercial confidence. It also reduces resilience of the system as a whole to recover later. 180
Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 05/10/2026So we are in a catch-22. The work-arounds must increase flow as without them, the price shock would be worse. But, using them shifts more trade into a system where two connected chokepoints are still being actively contested. 150
