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Replies

Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 02/10/2026

The system we had before was built on an assumption that now looks archaic. Merchant vessels could trade through Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea without their passage being determined by an armed escort, their commercial links, their flag, or whether it was politically acceptable.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 02/10/2026

There were risks, obviously. Piracy. War-risk premiums. Regional tensions. The occasional crisis. But the underlying presumption was that sea trade was open. A ship could be chartered, insured and sailed through an international strait because the system itself was expected to protect that right.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 02/10/2026

What we are seeing now is not a return to that system. It is a replacement for it. France has confirmed that one of its warships escorted around ten merchant vessels through Bab al-Mandab in the past week, under the EU’s ASPIDES mission. That is a significant development.

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