Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 30/09/2026MODEL 6: NOBODY MOVES I think this may be the most important one for understanding the wider system. The USA keeps its blockade and financial pressure. Iran keeps its Hormuz leverage. Neither side concedes and nobody actually solves the problem. 160
Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 30/09/2026Instead, everyone else adapts around them. Saudi oil moves through alternative routes and tankers use ship-to-ship transfers. Buyers seek politically safer supply while insurers reprice risk models. Shipping finds another workaround and Hormuz remains dysfunctional for a long time. 260
Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 30/09/2026We are already seeing part of this. Middle Eastern oil exports have recovered substantially through alternative routes, pipeline capacity and maritime workarounds. This is even while the political dispute around Hormuz remains unresolved. That distinction matters. 160
