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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 30/09/2026

MODEL 2: TEHRAN MOVES FIRST Iran demonstrates freer merchant passage before receiving substantial US relief. No tolls. Fewer restrictions. No interference. Most importantly here is sustained, unmolested commercial transits through Hormuz. The USA then responds.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 30/09/2026

But the problem for Iran is obvious. Once normal shipping begins moving again, some of the immediate economic and political pressure created by Hormuz disappears. Iran would therefore have to believe the USA's second move was effectively guaranteed. That trust currently does not exist.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 30/09/2026

MODEL 3: SIMULTANEOUS EXCHANGE This may be the neatest mechanism. Nobody really goes first. Each concession triggers another: Ceasefire to maritime step back to verification to economic step back to further reopening to negotiations. Trust is replaced by sequencing and verification.

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