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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 30/09/2026

MODEL 1: WASHINGTON MOVES FIRST The US makes a limited, reversible concession first. A sanctions waiver. Release of some frozen funds. Partial easing of blockade enforcement. Iran then begins reopening Hormuz. Look at the the actions here, not the rhetoric from the leaders.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 30/09/2026

An Office of Foreign Assets Control (USA) licence would be issued. A sanctions waiver would be put out. A change in naval instructions would remove blockades. A statement saying Washington is “prepared to consider” those things does not. The model only moves when something operational changes.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 30/09/2026

MODEL 2: TEHRAN MOVES FIRST Iran demonstrates freer merchant passage before receiving substantial US relief. No tolls. Fewer restrictions. No interference. Most importantly here is sustained, unmolested commercial transits through Hormuz. The USA then responds.

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