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Replies

Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 30/09/2026

The current negotiations are increasingly about sequencing. Iran links reopening Hormuz to movement on the US blockade, sanctions, frozen assets and the wider ceasefire. The USA wants movement on Hormuz and the nuclear issue before surrendering its main pressure tools.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 30/09/2026

That creates what I am calling the "Hormuz Sequencing Trap." Both sides possess leverage. Both want the other side to surrender part of theirs first. Both have reason to fear that once they move, the incentive for the other side to complete the bargain becomes weaker.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 30/09/2026

This is not necessarily about whether either side wants an agreement. It is a credible-commitment problem. Iran asks: If we reopen Hormuz first, what guarantees American relief follows? Washington asks exactly the same question in reverse.

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