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Replies

Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 17/09/2026

2/22 The important point is not that either waterway has suddenly become “safe”. Access to both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb is increasingly being shaped by politics, military protection and negotiated exemptions rather than by the old assumption of commercially open passage at all now.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 17/09/2026

3/22 That is the systemic degradation I have worried about since the beginning of #TheHormuzCrisis and throughout my book. The danger was never simply a strait being closed. It was universal commercial access being replaced by conditional, selective and politically managed access in practice.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 17/09/2026

4/22 Freedom of navigation works commercially because ships normally do not need to negotiate their political acceptability before every voyage. Owners assess weather, cargo, insurance and normal security risks, but the underlying assumption is that the route itself is available.

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