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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 16/09/2026

12/14 This is why I use scenarios. The value is not saying “I predicted that”. It is having a structure that tells me why a new event matters, what part of the system it changes, and whether the evidence strengthens, weakens or changes the previous assessment. That is the useful part.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 16/09/2026

13/14 A useful model should not become something the analyst spends months defending against reality. It should be challenged, amended and sometimes discarded, because the objective is to understand the system better. It is not to protect the original answer or win an argument afterwards.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 16/09/2026

14/14 The full article goes through all five scenarios, what the last five days have done to each of them, and what I would now change in the model. The conclusion is less about prediction than method, i.e. how do we know when our analysis itself needs to change? #MaritimeSecurity #Shipping

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Five Days Later: A Critical Review of My Suez-to-Iraq Maritime Risk Analysis | Ash Oro

I have just published a follow-up to the strategic analysis I put together five days ago, looking at the maritime system from Suez to Iraq. The point of this one is not to say, “look, I was right.” In...

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