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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 16/09/2026

3/14 That matters because complex crises rarely follow one script. Different parts of the same system can improve, deteriorate or adapt at the same time, so a useful model has to explain mixed signals rather than force every development into one forecast simply to keep the picture tidy.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 16/09/2026

4/14 My process is simple in principle. Build a model, state the assumptions, identify the indicators, compare them with reality, then change the model where the evidence shows it is too crude, incomplete or simply wrong. That is how I approach analysis generally, not just maritime crises.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 16/09/2026

5/14 So I went back to the five scenarios exactly as I originally wrote them. I asked which events fitted them, which did not and whether the evidence changed their relevance. More importantly, I examined whether the scenarios themselves had been structured properly in the first place at all.

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