Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 14/09/20262/6 That system is degrading because its benefits were never shared evenly. Wealth has accumulated. But, communities and states feel they bear the costs while others take the gains. Add unresolved regional, religious and national grievances, and trade becomes leverage rather than a common good. 1190
Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 14/09/20263/6 At the same time, the forces meant to underpin the system were scaled back for a peace dividend and repurposed for a different age. A drone team, a militia launch site or a damaged pumping station can now impose costs once requiring a conventional navy. 180
Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 14/09/20264/6 AI, drones, cheap precision weapons and deniable proxy networks supercharge that asymmetry. A state need not close a strait itself when partners can threaten a pipeline from Iraq, seize ground by Bab al-Mandeb, or make insurers withdraw cover. 1100