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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 13/09/2026

11/20 This is what interconnected risk looks like. The pipeline moved oil around Hormuz, but Yanbu cargoes for Asia still face Bab al-Mandeb. With the pipeline interrupted and Perim reportedly held by the Houthis, alternatives are being degraded alongside the route they were meant to replace.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 13/09/2026

12/20 I therefore raise the Central Red Sea and Yanbu risk from 7 to a provisional 9/10 while pipeline integrity and throughput remain uncertain. Bab al-Mandeb remains 9/10, but confidence in that rating has strengthened as the Houthis gain a potentially enduring position beside the waterway.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 13/09/2026

13/20 Scenario One was rapid resolution and recovery. It is not supported today, but remains a useful baseline. Even if attacks stopped today, ships would stay displaced, insurers would recover cautiously, cargoes would be queued and agricultural application windows have already been missed.

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