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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 12/09/2026

3/26 That is why I have produced a full strategic risk assessment, rather than another incident report. It scores the major routes from Suez to Iraq and then follows the consequences into energy, shipping, insurance, agriculture, food prices and human security worldwide. #MaritimeSecurity

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 12/09/2026

4/26 The scores run from 1 to 10, but they are not predictions that a ship has a stated percentage chance of attack. They assess whether cargo can move reliably, affordably and at an acceptable human and commercial risk, including what happens if the delivery fails elsewhere in the system.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 12/09/2026

5/26 I begin at Suez, which remains physically open. Yet an Asia–Europe ship approaching from the Indian Ocean must pass Bab al-Mandeb first, so the canal can continue operating while much of the trade route leading to it becomes commercially unattractive or unusable for its customers.

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