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Replies

Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 10/09/2026

2/9 Saudi Arabia can send oil across the country by pipeline and load it onto ships at Yanbu, on the Red Sea. But customers in Asia still need it delivered reliably. The direct sea route runs south through Bab al-Mandeb, so getting around Hormuz solves only part of that journey.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 10/09/2026

3/9 We have evidence of what disruption here can do. In early 2024, the IMF recorded a 50% fall in trade volume through Suez compared with a year earlier. Much of that traffic went around Africa instead, adding ten days or more to deliveries while ships continued working. #Shipping

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 10/09/2026

4/9 Think of a delivery vehicle taking longer to finish every round. It becomes available less often for the next scheduled job. Ships work the same way: longer voyages mean more vessels are needed to carry the same amount of cargo over time, even without a single ship being lost.

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