Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 16/06/202611/15 That is why Hormuz matters. Not because a chokepoint can be threatened. Maritime professionals have always known that. The more important lesson is that trade does not operate on legal theory. It operates on confidence. 1153
Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 16/06/202612/15 A vessel may have every legal right to transit. International law may remain unchanged. Naval forces may be present. But if charterers hesitate, insurers become cautious and operators lose confidence, behaviour starts to change. 1131
Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 16/06/202613/15 Once behaviour changes, the system changes with it. This is why I keep returning to the idea of systems degradation. Most systems do not collapse first. They degrade first. 1131
