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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 08/05/2026

5/14 Casual rhetoric during live escalation matters. Language shapes perception among allies and adversaries. It also affects markets, insurers and commercial shipping operators' decisions. The disconnect between the seriousness of the crisis and the rhetoric surrounding it is noteworthy.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 08/05/2026

6/14 Renewed strikes are likely to strengthen internal Iranian cohesion rather than weaken it. Historically, external military pressure tends to unify the three principal pillars of the Iranian system: The Government The IRGC And the Clerics. Which will also unite the people to an extent.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 08/05/2026

7/14 On the diplomatic front, reports that Russia and China are expected to veto a Gulf-backed UN Security Council resolution on Hormuz should surprise nobody. Once the conflict shifted toward direct US escalation and blockade-style enforcement, a UNSC veto became almost inevitable.

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