8/11
The asymmetry is decisive:
US must intercept everything.
Iran only needs one hit.
One successful strike reshapes the entire risk picture.
And what Project Freedom showed us was that any transits (even of warships) will be hotly contested by Iran.
#Strategy #Hormuz #IranWar 9/11
The maritime industry will read this clearly:
If destroyers are taking fire,
this is not insurable risk for commercial shipping.
Markets move faster than navies. The prices will now reflect the reality of the danger of the transit - insurance and commodity prices will rise.
#Insurance #Trade 10/11
So why the pause?
Because the test is done.
The US has learned what it needed:
You can enter the Strait.
You cannot yet control it.
So diplomacy will be needed - or an alternative strategy to win the war before reopening can begin.
#Geopolitics #ProjectFreedom #USNavy #Diplomacy