iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Marco Piani @marcopiani.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

Second, progress is indeed being made, and strong experimental demonstrations of error correction and of logical encoding & computation in 2024 are proof of that. This means that one should not consider quantum computing as ‘always 20 years in the future’.

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Marco Piani @marcopiani.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

When it comes to our polls, focusing on a stable set of respondents for the past three years and averaging the likelihood estimates, one finds that the average likelihood estimates have grown from survey to survey, when considering timeframes…

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Marco Piani @marcopiani.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

… which in turn means that last polls have provided a consistent likelihood estimate in absolute time: ~2040 is roughly the time when you might consider that a CRQC begins to be more likely to exist than not.

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