Josh @aosher.bsky.social · 18/11/2025If there is an AI bubble collapse coming, it is much more likely to resemble dot-com in 2000 than subprime in 08. Subprime was a liquidity crisis driven by contagion when banks were insufficiently capitalised to cover to loses on bad investments. But AI is being largely funded by cash transactions! 110
Josh @aosher.bsky.social · 18/11/2025The huge bets being put on AI firms are largely coming out of cash reserves, not borrowing. This means far lower risk of ripple effects. Still ugly, still lots of jobs on the line and likely a much more conservative turn in lending and capitalisation... 100
Josh @aosher.bsky.social · 18/11/2025But 08 was a proper once-in-a-lifetime event, more akin to the Great Depression than anything before or since (so far). This, obviously, it not a guarantee that you won't see another one - but AI probably ain't it. 000