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Tove Harris @toveharris.bsky.social · 01/02/2026

1/6 Anhaltender Anstieg der Todesfälle in Industrienationen - Analyse von Daten aus 34 Ländern (Artikel und Studie) Die COVID-Pandemie habe Todesfälle nicht vorgezogen, sondern in den meisten Industrienationen zu einem anhaltenden Anstieg der Sterblichkeit geführt. #COVID #COVID19

Global Assessment of COVID-19 Mortality Displacement From 2020 to 2024

Conclusions
The findings of this cross-sectional study suggest that 31 of 34 countries with high-quality mortality data exhibited no statistically significant evidence of mortality displacement. In contrast, for Greece, Latvia, and Poland, countries with above-average COVID-19 mortality, part of the postpandemic decline may reflect mortality displacement, particularly among the oldest age groups. However, the scale of early excess mortality far exceeded what displacement alone could make up for COVID-19. This underscores a widely seen failure of shielding strategies to adequately protect broadly defined individuals. Recognizing this distinction is essential for accurately interpreting postpandemic mortality trends and for designing policies that effectively safeguard broader populations without propagating the myth that older individuals who died in the COVID-19 era were already near death. Future research should further disentangle mortality displacement from genuine recovery to establish a clearer causal understanding of the factors driving postpandemic mortality trends, as well as unravel why so many European countries have failed to resume their pre–COVID-19 pattern of mortality decline.

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Tove Harris @toveharris.bsky.social · 01/02/2026

2/6 Die Ergebnisse der Studie widerlegen die weit verbreitete Annahme, die Pandemie habe hauptsächlich den Tod gebrechlicher Menschen beschleunigt, die ohnehin bald gestorben wären, und somit in späteren Jahren zu weniger Todesfällen geführt. #COVID #COVID19

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